Refugees from California like me wonder if the state can be saved from itself. Excluding natural disasters like wildfires, drought, and earthquakes, California’s elected officials are incapable of getting a firm grasp on their manmade failures. The state is particularly incompetent on budgetary matters.
From the California Legislative Analyst’s office: “Under our revenue and spending estimates, the Legislature faces an almost $18 billion budget problem in 2026
A $35 billion deficit is serious money. The quote attributed to long-ago Republican Illinois Senator Everett Dirksen applies here: “A billion here, a billion there, pretty soon you’re talking real money.”
California, starting with Governor Gavin Newsom, has itself to blame for the budget deficit. The ever-growing budget shortfall could undercut the legacy as a champion of the people that Newsom hopes to project as part of his 2028 presidential race. Newsom has no choice but to make tough budget choices in his last year as governor, which unfortunately for him extends directly into presidential primary season. Encino’s Assembly Budget chair Jesse Gabriel confirmed the rough road ahead that Newsom faces. “Today’s fiscal outlook underscores the challenging decisions ahead,” Gabriel said.
For the fourth year in a row during Newsom’s tenure, California is projected to have a deficit despite revenue growth. While some political analysts have Newsom leading for the Democratic nomination, defending his dismal management of state funds will be impossible.
A single catastrophic Newsom decision led to California’s fiscal crisis. In June, the California Globe reported that when Newsom added approximately 2 million illegal aliens to Medi-Cal, he also added billions of dollars to the budget. Despite Newsom later rolling back the program, the 2 million illegal alien enrollees will remain on the taxpayer-funded entitlement program for a mere $30/month—hardly enough to cover costs.
Granting Medi-Cal benefits to illegal aliens has been an ongoing cash drain. When Governor Jerry Brown expanded Medi-Cal to cover illegal alien children in 2015, and Newsom followed up by extending the costly benefits to illegal alien seniors 50 and older in 2022, the cost to cover all illegal immigrants reached $9.5 billion last year. The state received more than the intended number of recipients, which caused a $6.2 billion deficit to open up. Naturally, giveaway programs geared toward illegal aliens always attract more people than originally projected. State Sen. Roger Niello of Roseville, the Republican vice chair of the Senate Budget Committee, pinpointed the problem. Niello attributed the budget deficit to Democrats’ “unstoppable spending problems.” In a statement, Niello concluded that “the state must assess the effectiveness and sustainability of the programs that were created during the surplus and make necessary corrections.”
Newsom’s White House ambitions may motivate him to make the “necessary corrections” that Niello encouraged. Yet other headaches remain. California will face another wildfire season before the Democratic primaries, and hard-hit neighborhoods like Altadena and the Pacific Palisades are built in high-risk fire zones. Moreover, 90 percent of Los Angeles County’s housing stock was constructed before 1990, prior to fire-proofing code requirements taking effect. Raging fires appear inevitable. Their degree of severity could have a negative effect on Newsom’s campaign.
But if gas goes to $8 a gallon by 2026’s end, as oil analysts predict, that would be the knockout punch that would leave Newsom’s presidential bid down for the count. Refineries, like residents, are fleeing California—a course reversal from the late 1970s when the state had between 40 and 50 operating refineries. Senior Petroleum Analyst Patrick De Haan at GasBuddy.com posted on X: “It’s clear that the political environment in California has been hostile to refiners, and the state badly needs to revise its mentality or face a declining number of refineries and higher prices.”
By January 2029, a new president will be in the White House. But if Democrats are serious about their chances, they should find a more qualified candidate than Newsom. Putting the nation’s future into the hands of a man who can’t take care of his own backyard would be folly.
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